Guiding Light :: Critical Rank Distribution 03/20/2018 12:50 AM CDT
I mined 2303 data points of the first cycle of guiding light flare. The distribution is a somewhat typical bell curve around critical ranks 3 and 4 vs creatures without crit padding with rank 7 occurring far less often than rank 1. I very, very rarely saw a rank 5 or higher vs creatures with crit padding, with the bulk of the criticals hovering around rank 1 or 2.

I'll need to collect even more data points to have a more clear picture. I imagine the armor worn by the target also plays a role in the possible distribution. At any rate, this is my quick guess at the distribution vs creatures without crit padding:

rankrate
110%
215%
325%
425%
515%
68%
72%


Parting thought, bard sonic flares can flare up to rank 9 criticals while paladin flares follow the standard flare critical rank ceiling of rank 7 AND the second sonic flare is independent of the first sonic flare. Bard sonic flares are B-AN-AN-AS compared to paladin flares.
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Re: Guiding Light :: Critical Rank Distribution 03/20/2018 09:36 AM CDT
On the other hand, Paladin flares gain in likelihood at 4% per step (versus Sonic Weapon flares at 3% per step), and if the Paladin's weapon does not flare, the next one becomes more likely.

One-time casting cost versus ongoing mana drain... but then again, half the level, too.

<shrug>

Different spell, different effect. Each has their own characteristics.
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Re: Guiding Light :: Critical Rank Distribution 03/20/2018 12:56 PM CDT
>> On the other hand, Paladin flares gain in likelihood at 4% per step (versus Sonic Weapon flares at 3% per step) -- KRAKII

Let's maths this out. A Paladin with 102 ranks of SL:B and 105 ranks of SL:S has a 48% + 10% base chance of a "sprays" activation. I've seen "sprays" of 1604 flares with 0 ranks of blessing lore, and they occur at roughly 10% when possible, for roughly 2% on any given hit. With a roughly 20% chance for a "pulses" activation, the chance of a "sprays" activation is about 11.6%.

For a bard with 102 Air Lore, the chance of "snap" activation is 36%, and because it's independent, over 3 times more likely to occur on any given attack than a "sprays" guiding light activation. The crit ceiling on either sonic flare is 9 as is the "spray" activation of guiding light, but not for the first activation of guiding light. So, now we have a bard that requires over 100 less lore, at 2x cost, for a second flare that will trigger 3 times as often and both sonic flares can achieve rank 9s when only the "sprays" can achieve rank 9.

The difference between the two is miles apart.

>> ... and if the Paladin's weapon does not flare, the next one becomes more likely. -- KRAKII

That's how most flares, including the standard flare, works; not just Guiding Light flares, and I'm fairly certain sonic flares, too. It's not just a straight up 20% chance to activate on any given hit. It's closer to a 10% base, and with every non-activation, the base increases which approximates roughly 20% over the accumulated non-activations. That is to say, the flare rate has been smoothed. This is fairly easy to demonstrate by collecting all attacks and tracking the rate of activation on the attack after an activation. Or, conversely, tracking how many non-activations it takes before an activation.

>>One-time casting cost versus ongoing mana drain... but then again, half the level, too. -- KRAKII

With 1625 it really is a one time cast!

>>Different spell, different effect. Each has their own characteristics.

I suppose. But the maths supports sonics flares being objectively better than guiding light flares, in isolation and with direct comparison. Now, throw other scripts on top of a weapon that you can add Guiding Light flares and the scales tip rapidly. Still, it would be nice if Guiding Light flares were given some extra power to compensate. I always preferred sonics if for no reason other than they cannot be disarmed or looted. It means I can actually use sonics in high-end hunting areas without fear of losing millions.

Or, and I'm just spitballing here, what if 1604 has an unlock at, say, 20 religion lore to cast on creatures via CS mechanics. Does light plasma damage but increases the chance for the initial Guiding Light flare to occur by X% base + Y% lore. Or have multiple cycles, like 1 base + 1 per skill SL:R / 100, crit capped at 4 per cycle, and if the paladin hits a body location with their Guiding Light weapon that was previously hit by one of the CS cycles increases the base chance to flare to 100%. It would be good to be religion lore, as well, because then it wouldn't double dip on "spray" frequence (SL:B) or "spray" strength (SL:S). This would also open up the possibilty for a low end attack spell for paladins.
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Re: Guiding Light :: Critical Rank Distribution 03/20/2018 01:43 PM CDT
Since you're talking about doing this in a program, it should be Spitbol, no? :)
(A derivative of Cobol; I know my Dad had a reference manual for this back in the '70s at some point.)

.

"Does light plasma damage but increases the chance for the initial Guiding Light flare to occur by X% base + Y% lore." -- Gargadon

But humour aside... I like where you're going with this.

A set-up spell, for ongoing effect. Kind of like Wizards' new Rainbow Ring/502, or Monks' residual effect from Thought Lash/1210.

Gets my vote. <shrug>
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Re: Guiding Light :: Critical Rank Distribution 03/20/2018 02:58 PM CDT
I really like the idea of tactically hitting a body location affected by the spell, but I'm not so sure it's Paladinesque. That seems more roguish or bardish? I dunno. I have many more ideas for bards.

Should probably be limited by charges, and each Guiding Light activation consumes a charge. Base 1 charge. Charges at Seed 2 SL:R ranks / 5. I.e., 20, 65, 135, 230 ranks count toward next breakpoint. Charges denoted by descriptor. Crit capped at rank 4 because rank 5 chest plasma critical can kill va flares or CS spells. Maybe make hiding more difficult, too? Oh, and this could definitely be another potential use for bonded infusion. How about doubles the base chance for the initial guiding light flare + 1% per Seed 1 Religion. Or, basically, at a minimum increase overall chance of the initial Guiding Light flare by 100% to roughly 2/5 attacks and at maximum 4/5 attacks. Number and design could definitely be tweaked, but "activating" or gaining the full potential of the spell with a weapon attack feels more in line with paladin flavor instead of just sitting back in guarded and casting spells. Also reinforces that hybrid status of spells + physical combat. Could also add other dimensions to the spell: (1) uncap the number of times a "spray" can occur, (2) "penetration" i.e., reduces the effectiveness of crit padding or resistance, but does nothing vs creatures without either, (3) splash damage on "pulses" or "sprays" activation similar to ball spells.

>inc 1604
You motion forcefully as you confidently call on your patron in the invocation for Consecrate...
Your spell is ready
You gesture at an Ithzir scout.
A violet tongue of flame {verb} toward the Ithzir scout.
CS: +377 - TD: +284 + CvA: +9 + d100: +92 == +194
Warding failed!
Violet flames plunge into the Ithzir scout's body.
... {.250DF * 94Margin} points of damage!
... 15 points of damage!
Dazzling arc of energy traces blackened path across the Ithzir scout's chest!
A {dim;bright;brilliant;blazing;blinding} violet hue surrounds the scout.
Cast Roundtime 3 Seconds.

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