I understand how this type of observation can be biased but I am pretty sure the d100 is random.
I happen to be fighting a mob that requires >25 to hit. I would expect ~25% miss rate but it seems higher. I think it also appears the miss rate gets higher the longer I hunt. Has anyone recorded the d100 returns to see if they are equally distributed?
Placeholder for a something clever when I can think of something clever.
GARRICKR
ARCHSENEX
Re: Is d100 weighted
05/10/2017 12:34 PM CDT
You are likely suffering confirmation bias and including Evade/Block/Parry in your impressions.
Hard data of course will help, but if I felt like the die was weighted, I'd suspect just frustration. Plus the fact that it takes some 100,000 samples to really be at statistical average. You can easily have a bad week and it's still just how statistics play.
Hard data of course will help, but if I felt like the die was weighted, I'd suspect just frustration. Plus the fact that it takes some 100,000 samples to really be at statistical average. You can easily have a bad week and it's still just how statistics play.
DRUMPEL
Re: Is d100 weighted
05/10/2017 01:23 PM CDT
This question has been brought up in the past before and numbers have been provided by names in red to show that the RGN is working as intended.
Sometimes it does creep into my mind when I'm trying to forage for herbs (not a ranger nor using 603) and I see a ton of low rolls (below the necessary roll to successfully find an herb) or fumbled rolls.
Then eventually I'll hit a long string of high rolls or even open rolls. It's just easier to remember the negative side, especially when it involves your death or getting tagged numerous times in a row.
-Drumpel
Sometimes it does creep into my mind when I'm trying to forage for herbs (not a ranger nor using 603) and I see a ton of low rolls (below the necessary roll to successfully find an herb) or fumbled rolls.
Then eventually I'll hit a long string of high rolls or even open rolls. It's just easier to remember the negative side, especially when it involves your death or getting tagged numerous times in a row.
-Drumpel
KRAKII
Re: Is d100 weighted
05/10/2017 02:07 PM CDT
When I'm disarming traps with my Thief, my "normal" progression on the attempts is lame, poor, and miserable.
(Sure, I see "good" or "excellent" in there every so often. But I routinely see it taking until the 4th attempt before I get a non-sucky result.)
For all my complaining about Earthen Fury, I did not come and show off my -149 (because it's an open roll!) result when I got it a couple of weeks ago. (I was probably too busy griping about the 95 with a +8 bonus that wound up wounding me for just long enough that the next round got a whacking great bonus, which stunned me for long enough to kill me.)
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I have the armor hindrance line completely highlighted, so I see those all the time. Even when I'm in 3% or 4% armor, which I would expect about every 25-30 die rolls... seeing two or three of them in five casts starts to get to be a bit much.
1=FUMBLE is a different highlight, and it sucks getting one of those mixed in with sequential armor failures. (I was amused [horrified?] when I saw armor=1, armor=2, armor=3, 1=FUMBLE, before I finally got off a cast successfully; that was just last week or within 10 days or so.)
And I also have the +95 through +100 results highlighted, and seeing two or three of those in a row is pretty nice. Especially two or three of the 100s! (I've had both hands of an MStrike against a single creature be a 100, and that's a GOOD feeling. :)
(Sure, I see "good" or "excellent" in there every so often. But I routinely see it taking until the 4th attempt before I get a non-sucky result.)
For all my complaining about Earthen Fury, I did not come and show off my -149 (because it's an open roll!) result when I got it a couple of weeks ago. (I was probably too busy griping about the 95 with a +8 bonus that wound up wounding me for just long enough that the next round got a whacking great bonus, which stunned me for long enough to kill me.)
.
I have the armor hindrance line completely highlighted, so I see those all the time. Even when I'm in 3% or 4% armor, which I would expect about every 25-30 die rolls... seeing two or three of them in five casts starts to get to be a bit much.
1=FUMBLE is a different highlight, and it sucks getting one of those mixed in with sequential armor failures. (I was amused [horrified?] when I saw armor=1, armor=2, armor=3, 1=FUMBLE, before I finally got off a cast successfully; that was just last week or within 10 days or so.)
And I also have the +95 through +100 results highlighted, and seeing two or three of those in a row is pretty nice. Especially two or three of the 100s! (I've had both hands of an MStrike against a single creature be a 100, and that's a GOOD feeling. :)
GS4-SLEKEN
Re: Is d100 weighted
05/10/2017 02:56 PM CDT
A few GM's, with possibly more time on their hands than most, have run tests on the RNG. When you run it thousands of times the distribution is pretty much spot on.
SGM Sleken
SGM Sleken
