Alright, so let me preface this with I DO understand how RNG works, I DO understand the the realm of possibility ranges from everything to nothing.
That being said, I have had about a 10% success chance in my time at the forge. Sometimes a little better, sometimes a little worse, but it tips back and forth as RNG plays out. But then I started noticing it was getting REALLY brutal a week or so ago, which of course is possible, but it never changed. I am now at CONSTANT less than 2% chance at success. Again, totally possible within the realm of possibility, but the odds are starting to stack against it and I was wondering if anybody else had noticed anything similar?
basically the odds of my last run of luck over the 260 attempts I payed attention to is less than 0.02% (NOT success chance, chances to fail so badly over that amount). Totally possible, but suspicious enough to see if anybody else has noticed. I have made a lot of weapons, and had good luck and bad. But this was very sudden, and the odds all line up with each other at 2% success rate across forge/craft/vising which also seems very unlikely for such a standardized change.
1/60 @ 10%
3/200 @ 10%
0/12 @ 18% (I think thats right with gift of eonake? since you can never get 2 perfects from 1 forge is doesn't fully double the odds)
Or maybe I just need some sleep and can't math right.
Input and insults appreciated.
CODESS
PFLATS
Re: Anybody notice forging tank in the last 1-2 weeks?
06/20/2016 07:31 PM CDT
I can't really follow your post without more details.
Are you successfully making pieces but just not getting best pieces? Or are you failing the crafting roll and not even getting a finished product? Those are two different issues.
I don't know what you mean by the numbers you gave. Are they 3 different sessions? Crafting/forging/vising?
1/60 @ 10%
3/200 @ 10%
0/12 @ 18% (I think thats right with gift of eonake? since you can never get 2 perfects from 1 forge is doesn't fully double the odds)
To answer your last question, if you have a 10% success rate without a gift of eonak, you would thus have a 90% failure rate without gift. That means with gift running, to fail, you'd need to hit that 90% chance twice in a row: 0.9*0.9 = 0.81. So with gift running, you'd have an 81% failure rate and a 19% success rate.
>Input and insults appreciated.
How appropriate! You fight like a cow!
Are you successfully making pieces but just not getting best pieces? Or are you failing the crafting roll and not even getting a finished product? Those are two different issues.
I don't know what you mean by the numbers you gave. Are they 3 different sessions? Crafting/forging/vising?
1/60 @ 10%
3/200 @ 10%
0/12 @ 18% (I think thats right with gift of eonake? since you can never get 2 perfects from 1 forge is doesn't fully double the odds)
To answer your last question, if you have a 10% success rate without a gift of eonak, you would thus have a 90% failure rate without gift. That means with gift running, to fail, you'd need to hit that 90% chance twice in a row: 0.9*0.9 = 0.81. So with gift running, you'd have an 81% failure rate and a 19% success rate.
>Input and insults appreciated.
How appropriate! You fight like a cow!
CODESS
Re: Anybody notice forging tank in the last 1-2 weeks?
06/20/2016 08:51 PM CDT
Ugh. If you can not read my mind and correctly deduce the details I clearly committed I do not know why you even bother to answer at all!
1/60 @ 10%
1 best falchion handle out of 60 attempts
3/200 @ 10%
3 best falchion blades out of 200 attempts
0/12 @ 18%
0 perfects forged during a gifted vising season of 12 items (not that it would make a huge difference but I AM sure these were all completed while in gift. Lots of practice)
Any one of these, bad luck. Even all 3 can be bad luck. It just seems unlikely that they would each individually come out to a similar success rate of 2%, instead of some sort of median rate. It would not have caused me (as much) concern had it been like 1% here, 4% there, balancing out to 2%ish.
I feel my data set is enough cause for a ponderance, but is still far short of anything concrete.
1/60 @ 10%
1 best falchion handle out of 60 attempts
3/200 @ 10%
3 best falchion blades out of 200 attempts
0/12 @ 18%
0 perfects forged during a gifted vising season of 12 items (not that it would make a huge difference but I AM sure these were all completed while in gift. Lots of practice)
Any one of these, bad luck. Even all 3 can be bad luck. It just seems unlikely that they would each individually come out to a similar success rate of 2%, instead of some sort of median rate. It would not have caused me (as much) concern had it been like 1% here, 4% there, balancing out to 2%ish.
I feel my data set is enough cause for a ponderance, but is still far short of anything concrete.
CODESS
Re: Anybody notice forging tank in the last 1-2 weeks?
06/20/2016 08:52 PM CDT
ugh, sorry for that formatting. It's these damn cloven hooves!
PFLATS
Re: Anybody notice forging tank in the last 1-2 weeks?
06/21/2016 12:43 PM CDT
>0 perfects forged during a gifted vising season of 12 items (not that it would make a huge difference but I AM sure these were all completed while in gift. Lots of practice)
Where did you get the other 11 superior handles and 9 superior blades?
If you're saying you had some runs of bad luck where you went 1/60 and 3/200 but had other more successful tries, that doesn't signify anything. If those trials represent your last 272 consecutive forging interactions, then that's a different story.
And again, what are your attempts looking like? Lots of rescribes? Toothpicks and exploding bars? Or just trips to the pawnshop to sell another 50 elegant mithril falchion-blades.
Where did you get the other 11 superior handles and 9 superior blades?
If you're saying you had some runs of bad luck where you went 1/60 and 3/200 but had other more successful tries, that doesn't signify anything. If those trials represent your last 272 consecutive forging interactions, then that's a different story.
And again, what are your attempts looking like? Lots of rescribes? Toothpicks and exploding bars? Or just trips to the pawnshop to sell another 50 elegant mithril falchion-blades.
