GoE and Need for Expanded Ensorcell Brackets 12/21/2015 09:00 AM CST
Because of the introduction of the Gift of Eonak (GoE) though the new Boost system, Sorcerers need additional increments showing the difficulty of an ensorcell. Finer increments would allow informed decisions about when to use GoE to attempt a difficult channel.

The table below shows the chances of success with and without GoE:

DescriptionWithout GoEWith GoE*
"nearly impossible"1%2%
"nearly impossible"14%26%
"very difficult"15%28%
"very difficult"34%56%
"difficult, but possible"35%58%
"difficult, but possible"54%79%


As you can see, GoE makes the text descriptions less useful by increasing the range of the brackets, especially at the extremes when it nearly doubles the bracket ranges.

If I knew I had a 14% chance to succeed without GoE, I might use GoE and attempt the project, knowing that I would probably have a few failures but would eventually succeed. But if I knew that my chances were only 2% with GoE, then I would skip the project.

My preference would be to keep the existing text descriptions and in addition show the actual percentage chance. A helpful alternative would be to increase the number of brackets for which there are text descriptions, especially for the "nearly impossible" and "very difficult" brackets.






*Computations:

GoE grants a second d100 roll per attempt and takes the higher of the two rolls. The chance of success when using GoE is the complement of the square of the chance of failure when not using GoE. For example, if you would normally have an 80% chance of success, then using GoE would increase the chance of success to 96%, computed as follows:

1 - ((1 - 0.80)^2) = 0.96

The maximum benefit is at 50%, when the chance of success is 75% with GoE. The benefit of GoE decreases as the probability of success becomes higher or lower than 50%.
Reply
Re: GoE and Need for Expanded Ensorcell Brackets 12/21/2015 10:16 AM CST
I disagree that anything needs to be changed.

Each cast still has the same likelihood of success; you just happen to get a second shot at success, if the first fails.

The experienced Sorcerer will know when s/he is working on a difficult project ("gee, I'm only 33rd level trying a 5th-tier on an anti-magic material..."), and should be able to trigger the Gift as appropriate.
Reply