I'm working on compiling some information on the duration of these cantrips. I'm looking for 2 pieces of information. Your PM and how long your fist of stone/frost scyte last when you reinforce or crystalize them. If you don't want to post the info on the boards, feel free to email me or IM me at BinuDR on aim.

Elemental Magic: 520 65.23%

>You gesture at the tiny stone fist, and it glows briefly. Focusing your cantrip on the fist, you examine its magical pattern and attempt to reinforce the elemental structure where it is crumbling. After your manipulations, you sense that the magical decay of the fist should be halted for about 6 anlaen.
Roundtime: 1 second

>You gesture at the frost-bladed scythe, and it glows briefly. Focusing your cantrip on the scythe, you examine its magical pattern and attempt to reinforce the elemental structure where it is melting. After your manipulations, you sense that its magical decay should be halted for about 6 anlaen.
Roundtime: 1 sec.


- Fuquois

Board Villainy is a lost art.

Yes, crystallize ice and reinforce stone have the same duration.

you sense that the magical decay of the fist should be halted for about 7 anlaen and 16 roisaen.
Roundtime: 1 second

@ 688


_____________________________________

Tekemi exclaims, "It's practically a smorgasbord out here!"
Tekemi says to Tokomi, "You're the prime rib, of course."

I get the same duration for frost scythes and stone fists. It is currently winter. It is possible that, without crystallize ice, scythes last longer in the winter than the summer.

Thanks for the data everyone, if anyone else has more please post!

>>With the data I have so far it appears that the formula for duration is not linear.

Yeah, it's difficult to see reliable trends with only a few data points. Using my personal data, plus the data points that you have received, I have determined that the duration formula does, in fact, exhibit a very strong linear trend with a correlation of R-squared = 0.9998 (A perfect correlation is R-squared = 1.0)

Here is my data. The duration is in minutes. The last three data points were from this thread. Notice that even the fractions of a Rank are important because 259.11 lasts for 106 minutes while 259.50 lasts for 107 minutes.

See my conclusions below.

PM	Duration
252	104
253.90	105
255.62	105
258.80	106
259.11	106
259.50	107
260.49	107
262.30	107
265.70	108
266.36	108
270.50	109
270.93	109
271.67	110
272.91	110
274.52	110
274.79	110
278.12	111
279.11	112
284.13	113
520	180
543.93	185
688	226

Preliminary conclusions:
1. The Duration formula for Crystallize Ice and Reinforce Stone appears to be Linear.
2. Using Excel to create a trendline, the formula for duration is approximately [DURATION=(PM*0.28)+33.7] (With R-squared = 0.9998)
3. This means that at 0 PM, the Duration would theoretically be about 33~34 minutes.
4. The above formula appears to be accurate within +/- 1 minute.
5. By taking the reciprocal of the slope (1/0.28=3.57) we find that for every ~3.57 ranks of PM you earn, the duration of your cantrip will increase by about one minute.

NOTE: I left out the one data point that was 423.01PM = 166min (5 anl, 16 rois) because for some reason it was an outlier. It was the only data point of the 25 data points that was significantly off of the trendline. Perhaps that character's duration was affected by weather or some other modifier? Constellation Jewelery that Boosted PM, perhaps? Otherwise, the trendline seems to fit pretty well for every other datapoint that's been compiled so far.

I have a nifty looking Excel graph to demonstrate the linear trend, but alas, I cannot post it to the Forums. I may play around with Google Docs to see if I can get the graph in there to share if anyone would like.

KEEP YOUR DATA COMING IN FOLKS! Binu and I can use all the data points we can get! Be sure to not use any PM modifying abilities or CJ before performing this experiment!

Mahalo!

I think it was my data point that was the outlier, and I was standing in the Jantspyre when I tested it, however, I just retested on dry land and still get 5 anlaen 16 roisaen at 423.01 PM. Weird.

40 across the board except for STR 36 and STA 37

Since I noticed I was about to rank PM, figured I'd post results from both. No change. Was on a 'dry' road, snow falling heavily.

...decay should be halted for about 4 anlaen and 16 roisaen.
Roundtime: 1 sec.
Elemental Magic: 363 99.58% clear
_________________________

decay should be halted for about 4 anlaen and 16 roisaen.
Elemental Magic: 364 03.32% understanding

___________________

Strength : 31 Reflex : 32
Agility : 32 Charisma : 30
Discipline : 30 Wisdom : 30
Intelligence : 30 Stamina : 30

antrip on the fist, you examine its magical pattern and attempt to reinforce the elemental structure where it is crumbling. After your manipulations, you sense that the magical decay of the fist should be halted for about 9 anlaen and 13 roisaen.
Roundtime: 1 second
>


PM 873

>>Hmm... yes, that does seem strange. Maybe there is another factor involved in the duration besides pure Primary Magic? Does your character have any stats that are significantly higher than the others? Maybe Discipline or Charisma factors in too?

Yes, there is another factor involved besides PM skill, but it isn't an attribute. What other skill do you think might be helpful in maintaining and extending the life of a magically-created object?

It isn't a really complex formula, though. I mean, they're cantrips -- I wouldn't waste time coming up with a convoluted formula just to drive you guys crazy, right? Right?


- GM Wythor

What goes up
is futile --
unless it goes out

>Ooo Ooo I know! Arcana!

On that note:

After your manipulations, you sense that the magical decay of the fist should be halted for about 5 anlaen and 17 roisaen.

Elemental Magic: 427 39.44%
Arcana: 420 59.23%

>He has an amazing ratio of Arcana to PM of almost 1:1 !!!

Amazing or pathetic?

Thanks for all of your help everyone!

BINU,

I came up with a formula for the duration of Crystallize Ice/Reinforce Stone using the data provided over the last few days. It takes both PM and Arcana into account and was accurate within one minute for all the data points I tested (including Greenpappy's).

Since you started the thread, Binu, I don't want to steal your thunder (in case you are close to finding a formula, as well). With your permission, I'd like to post what I've discovered so far, so that we can compare notes and see if we both came up with the same formula or something totally different.

Let me know.

Thanks!

>>Feel free to post. I only have a few data points with Arcana as well as PM.

Thanks, Binu!

What I'll do is briefly introduce my method of finding this formula for Duration of Crystallize Ice/Reinforce Stone, before actually revealing it.

At first, I assumed that that the duration was based strictly on Primary Magic (Elemental) skill. I was able to determine a linear regression equation for the data points of the form {DUR = PM*Kp + B}, where Kp and B were constants. My regression line was fairly accurate, except for one data point (Greenpappy) that was noticeably above the line. I knew the true solution had to be perfectly accurate for all data points, so I knew I was missing something.
This got me thinking that there must be some other factor involved with the duration of the cantrip in addition to PM, and I unsuccessfully tried taking stats into account. Fortunately, Wythor pointed me in the right direction, saying there was an additional skill involved and it had to do with magical creations.......hence Arcana.

Heading back to my data points and formulas, several people submitted new data that now included Arcana as well as PM and Duration. I took this data, along with my own and set up a series of simultaneous equations. At first, I assumed that the equation was of the form DURATION = (PM * Kp) + (ARCANA * Ka), but I still couldn't get the data points to all match. Then it hit me that I should included a constant B as well:

DURATION = PM*Kp + ARCANA*Ka + B

Now, I just had to solve a system of three simultaneous equations with unknowns: Kp, Ka, and B. Using three known data points of (DUR, PM, ARCANA), I was able to come up with values for Kp, Ka, and B. After mixing in several different sets of data, I was able to average out my constants to get some reliable numbers. What I discovered was:

Kp = Ka = 1/6

26.6667 <= B < 26.8333

B can be any value in this range.

So what does all this mean? Without further ado, I shall present the formula for Duration of CI and RS Cantrips. I chose B=26.7 for the formula and it works great.

DURATION = (PM + ARCANA)/6 + 26.7

Here are the new conclusions that I've come up with. I determined that my Preliminary Conclusions from POST 969 were inaccurate and should be disregarded.

My New Conclusions:
1. The new formula has been 100% accurate for all the data points I have tried thus far. Feel free to try your own data to see if you can 'break' it and let me know.
2. Remember to always round down Duration to the nearest minute to match in-game results.
3. Fractions of Ranks are not important, as I previously thought. I discovered that an increase in my Arcana had triggered the magical jump in Duration, not my increased fractions of PM. Always use whole number ranks of PM and Arcana (rounded down) in the formula.
4. Duration increases by one minute every time the sum of your PM and Arcana skills increases by six.

That's all I have for now. Let me know if anyone finds a way to 'break' the formula or comes up with a better one. I'm interested to hear of anyone else's findings.

So now that it's been a few months and we are all a little older (and not so much wiser), I was wondering if anyone had a chance to test out my Formula for Crystalize Ice and Reinforce Stone and find a way to break it?

DURATION = (PM + ARCANA)/6 + 26.7

Can we get some more people to post whether or not they were able to accurately predict their duration with the formula? Just curious.

Thanks!

whoops, yea forgot to post. Accurate for me too.

I'm no slouch, but you people make me feel seriously stupid.


I'm like .... AROOOOO?!

Might I suggest amending it to either spreadsheet friendly version below since you didn't include the required rounding down. Whichever of the two you feel is better. The one with the constant outside the division gives a more intuitive sense of base duration, but the one with it inside is probably truer to the actual formula.

Floor ( ( PM + Arcana + 160 ) / 6 )
Floor ( ( PM + Arcana ) / 6 + 26.7 )

-Evran

The first slayer of Malik, may he not rest in peace.