Hey guys -

Wanted to give you a heads up as to where the commodities and contracts rewrite is going. I'll give the basics of my speech from Simucon, and supplement it with information and respond to questions.

Basically, right now, Contracts are the guild saying "Take A from location X to location Y." A could be gem pouches, diamonds, whatever. However, upon completion of this contract, the goods you transferred go to the Void of Game Mechanics - You could ship 200 crates of diamonds from Arthe to Crossing and nothing would change.

Similarly, Commodities are a bunch of commodity pits with a weird system that is generally accepted to be both broken and scary. In this, there is a limited supply of certain items, and events cause the price to vary, allowing a psuedo stock-market kind of feel to it.

The new Commods/Contracts system (which we can call the Trading system for now) combines these two notions. The basic tenets are as follows:

* A Good is anything bought or sold in bulk. Raw materials, pallets of wood, flats of donuts, whatever.
* A Trading Post is some location that buys or sells at least one Good in bulk. This could be the commodity pits selling tons of different raw goods, it could be a mining outpost that only sells carts of iron ore, or it could be a blacksmith shop that sells bundles of longswords. All of these are, for discussion's sake, a Trading Post.
* A TP will have an 'optimal stock' of each Good it buys or sells. If the current stock is higher than optimal, it will cost less to buy (if they sell it to you) and the post will pay less (if they buy it from you).
* A TP has a maximum stock (usually around double the optimum) where it will no longer buy any more of a Good.
* Random events can (and will!) cause the optimum stock or price of a Good in a TP to change temporarily. These events could be 'Rabbits ate all of the lettuce' or 'There's a party for a minor noble, we need more tarts' or 'The town guard is hiring a new batch of recruits, and has bought all of our longswords.'
* The rumor system will be able to tell a trader about any random events that are occurring at trading posts in the current province.
* Warehouses will be much more prevalent and you'll be able to store more in them than before.

So that's how the new macro-economy will fare. Now, this is all well and good for commodities and people that want to run around doing a ton of research, but what if you're a new trader and you don't know everything yet, or if you don't want to do research and just want a profitable run? This is where the Contracts come in.

Contracts are done through the Guild, and instead of picking up your goods at the Guild, you will ask a clerk for a contract, and he will tell you about a run between two existing trading posts that is currently profitable. After you've sold the goods, the Guild will take a 40% cut of the net profits you earn. If you've managed to lose money on the deal, the Guild will still pay you a small (much smaller) stipend for your work. This is called 'underwriting a contract' - The contract is guaranteed to earn you a little money, and you don't have to do any thinking.

Now, as for timelines, this is in progress but major work on it is waiting until after Skills 3, Magic 3, and Combat 3 give me a break. As noted at Simucon, X3 will be starting testing by the end of August, so this isn't one of those 'Forever Projects'. However, I do ask that you grant me patience in light of the fact that there is a major project sitting in front of this one. This will happen, but it will take time and care.

Let the questions commence :).

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

Me like.

So, year'ish? (Don't have to answer that)

Sounds more like commodities are being expanded and taking over the contract system. Which I like, because some of the contracts shipped are just WIERD.

>Rumor/event affecting price/stock

About how long will an "event" last? If I'm in Crossing and hear of a rumor of the Dirge guardhouse paying a premium for new swords, and it takes me 3 minutes to get to a supplier of swords in Knife Clan and 10 minutes to haul to Dirge, will the "event" be over?

>new Contract mechanics

So basically a contract is the system holding your hand for a cut of the profit, and/or a cut of losses. Is there going to be a time limit on this "contract"? Because if the price fluctuates, depending on how long you hold onto the commodity, you would affect your profit/loss.

Naniaki
Very excited to see this

>>Actually an opinion cannot be changed or corrected. Nice try back of line.-VERATHOR
>>But it can be wrong.-Starlear

Since it sounds like Traders might be encouraged to store commodities more often, would some degrade over time?

On one hand, it would be awesome to store up on donuts until the great donut famine of 412. On the other hand, donuts eventually go stale.

>>would some degrade over time?

Oh yeah, that was mentioned at the Con too... I don't know if he just meant perishable goods (seems more likely to me, though), but he did say that after so much time the value would go down by 10% of its current value (or perhaps quantity?) to represent spoilage/decay over time. Not sure if non-perishable commodities would be subject to the same thing, but it would be interesting.

On the flip side of that, since others than just Traders use the rumor system I could see folks using a false "event" to trigger market panics as Traders rush to fill demands that aren't really there. This could get interesting.

Killing you softly with his song,
- Stormsinger Shavay

---

"We are the music makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams"
- Arthur O'Shaughnessy

Will there be interprovience goods, such as good XYZ can only be bought in Crossing and sold in Shard? Are the islands going to be included? Is there going to be any tie-ins with the crafting systems?
How is experience going to work, just based on prices sold at or will distance be a factor?


Abison

So logically speaking, Boar Clan to Mer'Kresh won't necessarily pay the most, but it might? Is this a simple multiplier for distance?

>>So logically speaking, Boar Clan to Mer'Kresh won't necessarily pay the most, but it might? Is this a simple multiplier for distance?

Correct. You could turn a very narrow profit or even a loss if you buy the wrong good for the trip. For instance, if you buy bales of hay at 2 silver apiece in Crossing and go to Kresh, where they're buying them for 1.5 silver apiece, then you're selling at a loss and you made a bad call when deciding to make that run. You should have known that there's a farmer on the other side of Kresh that sells bales of hay for 1.4 silver apiece, which drove the price down.

Note: This is just an example that has literally no bearing on what will be implemented. I just saw some dude drive by in a truck with bales of hay, which inspired me. It doesn't take much.

As the system gets used and explored, you'll be able to find more routes. It's almost certain that there will be an almanac per 'zone' that will tell historical information about the zone. It may be magical so you can have up-to-yesterday information wherever you go so you don't have to constantly get an updated one. We'll see.

Somebody ask me what Zones are and we can talk about that in a bit, if you're interested :-D.

Also ask me about illegal goods.


--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

>>Any chance the commodity pits will give you something like vouchers for your goods, instead of loading them immediately? That way a patient Trader could buy vouchers for non-perishable property when it's surplus, then sell the vouchers somewhere else when there's a shortage?

Probably not - That basically eliminates travel time between pits. Warehouses will allow the patient trader to acquire a large number of units of a Good for later sale, perishable or no. There will be many more warehouses with a much different approach to storage, so an educated and patient trader will be able to take advantage of a glut or famine.

>>Older Traders wouldn't do the heavy lifting, they'd do the patient and more profitable commodity trading on paper.

That makes sense in a simulation sense but the problem is that if you combine that with moongates you're opening the doors to massive market manipulation. I'd be amenable to automatic deliveries to the nearest warehouse that take X minutes of in-game time, but storage caps will prevent you from being able to totally crash the market if you have a ridiculous amount of plat (which many people do).

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

>I'd be amenable to automatic deliveries to the nearest warehouse that take X minutes of in-game time, but storage caps will prevent you from being able to totally crash the market if you have a ridiculous amount of plat (which many people do).

That sounds pretty awesome. Would it be possible to get delivery from a warehouse that also takes in-game time? I would imagine available storage would be increased when a deliver arives at the TP, and would be decreased as soon as goods are sent towards the warehouse. This would allow Traders to play the paper game, but still limit their ability to crash the market.

Mostly, I'd love to see the guild get away from the monotony of waiting on their caravan (or being dragged around by it). Certainly their ability to make money should be limited by travel time, but they don't need to travel with the caravan for that to be a limiting factor.

Elemental Lord Opieus, Expert Warrior Mage of Elanthia
"For a bunch of radical empiricists, the Philosophers' system relies on a whole lot of faith." ~Armifer

<<Also, thieves might be able to help you obscure your goods, with your permission.

Could this be expanded to anyone proficient in Thievery and Stealth?

>>But what about illegal goods?!
I'm glad you asked!


THAT SOUNDS TOTALLY AWESOME! :-)

i'm liking what i see





Explore the Final Frontier - the unknown calls

Everything sounds awesome so far, can't wait to see it in action whenever that ends up being. I think my only main request would be to set things up in such a way that it's possible to say to yourself "oh hey my trading is at clear, I should go mindlock it", and then go run over to where your caravan is, do some quick trading until mindlocked and then have your caravan stabled and get back to what you were doing before, in 30 minutes or less. I don't feel that this is an unreasonable request, seeing as how it is true for basically every other skill in the game.

I think a good way to do this would be for contracts to always be between short distances (per province is way too large), and teach trading very well but give much less money than a successful commods run (which sounds like this part is already part of the plan). This would give players a choice between either training the skill quickly and effectively but making very little money (similar to every other skill in the game), or taking the more interesting and lucrative route of commodities whenever they have enough time to RL sink into a long trading run.


Apu
_
http://www.elanthipedia.com/wiki/User:Apu

>>Contracts to always be between short distances (per province is way too large), and teach trading very well but give much less money than a successful commods run

This is more or less where I was probably going to go with it. However, I'd like it to be kind of an inverse bell curve for experience gain, and exponential for profit.

For instance, a contract may teach very well but will provide little income. Fumbling at doing a route will get you relatively little experience and middling profits. However, finding an excellent route (which would be unlikely to be available by contract) would provide you with excellent experience and excellent profits, with potentially a similar time investment to running contracts for half an hour, after taking other incentives into account. Consider it something along the lines of "I'm going to go over to Forfedhdar for a week or so to sell them some necessities, so I'll load my caravan with ironwood since I know they pay well for it." That'd give you a free mind lock or few while you're over there, as well as a hefty profit.

Does that feel like a good balance?

>>So what are these Zones I'm hearing about?

So glad you asked.

Zones are essentially factions. For instance, Crossing will likely be mostly owned by the same faction. The Clans, or at least the Zoluren Clans, may also be all part of a faction put together by an enterprising trader. I may just call them Trading Factions or Enterprises or something like that. I dunno yet.

As you make good trades with a faction, you'll gain reputation with them. Your reputation will decay over time, similar to crafting prestige, and there will be public leaderboards to that effect. Reputation will have passive effects (For instance, Crossing guards may be more likely to look the other way if you're smuggling something illegal). It will also be a currency that you can spend on things - This might be for a fast delivery between a TP and your warehouse, or maybe open a party hall in your honor, or maybe a reduction of your shop rent, or something like that. The notion being, the more active you are within a zone, the better you'll be treated by your Guild within that zone. Titles could be there too.

Zones aren't entirely geographical - While there will be SOME zones that are very region-specific (Crossing, Riverhaven, you get the picture), not all TPs in the region are a member of that zone. For instance, there could be a faction of smugglers that you gain reputation with by smuggling goods across provincial boundaries. Perhaps there's a particular group of Elves that has TPs all across Elanthia but has declined to join any specific faction, instead incorporating on their own.

Reputation will be handed out less frequently than experience or money - In order to earn reputation with a faction, you need to be doing them a service - Selling them goods that they're lacking (ie when the optimum stock is low) or buying their surplus off of them. This will be especially noticeable when you do interprovincial runs, because you're likely to be selling them goods that they don't get through any other means.

This opens up the idea of joining a faction as well as inter-faction politics, events, etc. Lots of good potential in this.

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

Back in history Merchant Houses ruled kingdoms and set the economys of same. Some had less scruples than others as well. Not sure this is where you are going as far as factions are concerned but it is an idea i have always thought appealing of being able to move up the ranks of a local or regional merchant houses. So maybe an idea is to set up joinable Houses that could be incorporated into the system.

Jerde


rub other gweth
[Assuming you mean the Barbarian Guildleader Les.]
You rub your jadeite gwethdesuan.

>>could citizenship for a certain province be factored into the reputation as well?

Entirely possible.

>>So maybe an idea is to set up joinable Houses that could be incorporated into the system.

Yep yep. That's kind of the idea.

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

>>I hope we don't have to get a different ledger.

Old ledgers should be just fine. I'll rewrite them but the actual item won't need to be replaced.

>>Also, at the con you mentioned almanacs. Do you feel comfortable expanding on them?

Sure! Almanacs will probably end up being pages in a ledger actually. Almanacs will likely be a something you can purchase with reputation at a faction. An almanac will track the last in-game day's opening prices so you can get an idea of what the state of the market was. This should help inform you of new TPs that you haven't explored in a zone. The city-based zones will likely give you an almanac for free.

I also have vague plans with respect to a web page that you can use to view a much wider timeframe of historical information (I'm thinking 30 days or so). That's even farther down the line than factions though, so I wouldn't at all take it a a promise.

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

>>or maybe this could be kept in game by asking npc's about things

Probably not - There are very very limited tools available for displaying information like a histogram in-game - ASCII just doesn't really cut it. I'm totally open to the idea of asking a clerk about a different zone's TP and getting a piece of information about it, though. That would be potentially inaccurate but a good way to get information about other posts.

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

>>Allows the Trader to extrapolate from previous knowledge to make a prediction about how the price of this good will change in the future, with more skill leading to a better prediction and the ability to look further into the future.

That's an awesome idea, but all you could really guess at is whether or not its stock will naturally replenish on the next day or delete on the next day - A huge portion of this system is impactable by players, and there's no predicting what you crazy folks will do.

>>Histograms. It's a shame these can't be shown easily, but consider stem-and-leaf presentations?

The issue is combined between the difficulty of properly displaying things and the technical aspects of storing that kind of information. If you assume one data point per good per TP per IG day, and there's 400 trading posts with an average of 10 goods each (totally made up numbers), you're talking 16,000 pieces of data every day. Our current system isn't really designed to handle that kind of information with any kind of ease, unfortunately. I've got some things in the work that WILL make it easier, but until we can get that going (which is why the web site idea is so far in the future), we're going to have to be content with tracking the previous day's data only.

>>Work orders. Would be awesome to tie this system into an inter-province work order system. Enchanter A orders some things while in Shard, low level Carver B makes them up in Crossing, and Trader C picks them up and delivers them to the enchanter.

This is the sort of crafting tie-ins that I was envisioning. In fact, one thing I'd love to see is some stores where the stock is only available if a trader has performed the proper deliveries. Additional uses for this system I was just thinking about are:

* Delivering building materials to buildings being constructed.
* Delivering weapons to war fronts
* Delivering player-made 'units' of Goods to be sold.
* Tie-ins with the mining system, or any other raw material production systems we come up with in the future.

--

"The ninety and nine are with dreams, content but the hope of the world made new, is the hundredth man who is grimly bent on making those dreams come true." -E.A.P.

>>That's an awesome idea, but all you could really guess at is whether or not its stock will naturally replenish on the next day or deplete on the next day - A huge portion of this system is impactable by players, and there's no predicting what you crazy folks will do.

Ah, of course. I wouldn't want to give up the player interaction, as that's the best part!

But perhaps Traders could still make an estimate about what demand will be like at a given TP, even if they can't determine whether that demand will be filled? And yes, of course estimate how much of demand has been filled recently -- or, perhaps, how much demand has been filled in general.

>>I've got some things in the work that WILL make it easier

Great, well, maybe at that time. :)

>>* Delivering weapons to war fronts

I'd love to see this, especially if number of weapons delivered had an actual tangible effect on how well the war is going. (Much like charging the orb during the Lyras event.) And, of course, artistry is needed at festival times, and orders there may have an effect on festival prices, etc.


-- Player of Eyuve

This makes me have hope for traders.

I know thieves already have it pretty cool, but what I've heard of old news was that Thieves were suppose to get in on the smuggler action, any chance of this, that they'd be able to help out, make profit, be part of the system?

_____________________________________
Victory Over Lyras, on the 397th year and 156 days since the Victory of Lanival the Redeemer.